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Archive for February, 2014

Is it Possible to Call a Black Swan Twice?

Tuesday, February 25th, 2014

Seems unlikely.テつ It is a bit like hitting the lottery twice.テつ Was the first prediction a bit “lucky”?テつ Quite possibly.

Remember Elaine Garzarelli of Shearson Lehman Brothers?テつ She predicted the market crash of 1987.テつ Then, not so much.

How about Meredith Whitney who accurately predicted that Citigroup would cut its dividend in 2007 due to the toxic mortgage mess it found itself in.テつ The municipal bond Armageddon she called in 2010 has not happened – at least not yet.

Nouriel Roubini has yet to match his call in early 2007 that “the party will soon be over” and has been wrong on a number of prognostications since.テつテつ Not to take anything away from these great calls, but the simple lesson learned is:

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

–Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

Do Sell-side Analyst Calls Really Matter?

Friday, February 21st, 2014

Yes, of course.テつ But they apparently (more…)

Ten Ten: Easy to Remember, Tough to Implement?

Friday, February 21st, 2014

President Obama called for a new minimum wage of $10.10 during his 2014 State of the Union address.テつ That is a big (more…)

When buyouts go bad…

Friday, February 7th, 2014

What happens?テつ You buy (more…)