Valtrend - Butler Business Valuation

Climbing a Wall of Worry

The S&P 500 closed at 1050 in September 2010.  Today it stands at 1,350 – almost a 30% move in 8 short months.

This move came despite the following major (once in a life-time?) events:

  • The Arab Spring
  • The Japanese earthquake and ongoing nuclear disaster
  • Europe’s debt and banking crises

With worries like these, one has to wonder where the S&P 500 would be without them?  Ironically, that is not an easy answer.  Could it be lower?

One can see the silver lining in each of these uncertain events:

  • The Arab Spring may be the catalyst for outstanding economic growth in the region.
  • Rebuilding in Japan will spark economic activity.
  • European countries (like the US) instituting better economic policies and reforms.

What is the next wall or next black swan to overcome – or not?

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