Valtrend - Butler Business Valuation

What is key to being a good forecaster?

Ironically, not knowing too much.テつ Sometimes new analysts or forecasters do a better job, as experienced analystsテつmay beテつtoo close toテつthe situation, according to Philip Tetlock, a Wharton professor.テつ Another goodテつpractice is to updateテつthe forecast often – even just incrementally.テつ This seems to make good sense.テつ Third, good forecasters must be exposed and aware of contradictory information.テつ Fourth, they must have a base rate – or a forecast that “is in the ballpark”, which they then can tweak based on specific information.

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